Sunday, 14 May 2017

2016/17: 1st 19 Games v 2nd 19 Games

Updated 22/05/2017


1st 19 Games


1st 19 Games Played Points GF GA Goal +/- Shots F p/90 Shots A p/90 Shots +/- p/90 SoT F p/90 SoT A p/90 SoT +/- p/90 Shooting% Save% PDO Goal% TSR SoTR xG Ratio xG For xG Against XG +/- Win Draw Lose Passes F Passes A Possession% 0
Arsenal 19 40 41 19 22 15.3 10.2 5.2 5.2 3.6 1.6 41.8 72.1 113.9 68.3 60.1 59.0 64.8 30.7 16.7 14.0 36.1 48.3 5.7 564.1 404.3 58.3 Arsenal
Bournemouth 19 24 26 31 -5 11.7 14.2 -2.4 4.0 4.8 -0.8 34.2 65.9 100.1 45.6 45.3 45.5 41.3 19.2 27.3 -8.1 24.8 39.4 25.7 438.8 408.4 51.8 Bournemouth
Burnley 19 23 21 29 -8 9.5 19.0 -9.5 3.1 6.0 -2.9 36.2 74.6 110.8 42.0 33.3 33.7 32.7 14.7 30.1 -15.5 22.7 45.1 22.2 318.6 527.4 37.7 Burnley
Chelsea 19 49 42 13 29 15.6 8.5 7.1 5.6 2.6 3.1 39.3 73.5 112.7 76.4 64.6 68.6 68.0 27.1 12.8 14.4 44.1 33.1 12.9 518.3 428.7 54.7 Chelsea
Palace 19 16 29 35 -6 12.3 14.2 -1.9 4.2 5.0 -0.8 36.7 63.2 99.9 45.3 46.4 45.4 45.2 20.5 24.8 -4.3 14.4 41.9 33.7 381.9 414.2 48.0 Palace
Everton 19 27 25 23 2 12.9 11.6 1.3 4.7 3.6 1.2 27.8 66.2 94.0 52.1 52.7 57.0 51.5 22.3 21.1 1.3 17.2 46.7 26.1 433.6 426.9 50.4 Everton
Hull 19 13 16 41 -25 10.3 19.6 -9.3 3.5 6.1 -2.6 24.2 64.7 88.9 28.1 34.4 36.3 30.5 12.5 28.5 -16.0 8.8 47.9 33.3 407.5 530.6 43.4 Hull
Leicester 19 20 24 31 -7 11.1 14.5 -3.4 3.5 4.9 -1.4 36.4 66.7 103.0 43.6 43.4 41.5 49.0 21.1 21.9 -0.9 16.2 43.1 30.7 364.8 500.9 42.1 Leicester
Liverpool 19 43 46 21 25 17.5 7.7 9.8 6.1 3.1 3.1 39.7 63.8 103.4 68.7 69.4 66.7 67.2 31.3 15.3 16.1 40.9 39.5 9.6 600.8 357.8 62.7 Liverpool
Man City 19 39 39 21 18 16.6 8.5 8.1 5.6 3.0 2.6 36.8 63.2 100.0 65.0 66.2 65.0 68.3 30.4 14.1 16.3 36.1 34.9 19.1 580.6 300.7 65.9 Man City
Man United 19 36 29 19 10 17.3 9.5 7.7 6.0 3.2 2.8 25.4 68.9 94.3 60.4 64.4 65.1 69.3 28.7 12.8 16.0 28.8 47.9 13.2 526.3 401.4 56.7 Man United
Middlesbrough 19 0 17 22 -5 9.1 14.3 -5.2 2.6 4.0 -1.4 34.7 71.1 105.7 43.6 39.0 39.2 38.0 12.5 20.3 -7.8 18.5 48.4 23.2 414.3 471.6 46.8 Middlesbrough
Southampton 19 24 19 22 -3 14.7 10.1 4.6 4.6 2.8 1.8 21.6 58.5 80.1 46.3 59.2 62.4 58.8 21.3 14.9 6.4 20.8 50.1 19.1 483.6 399.8 54.7 Southampton
Stoke 19 21 22 32 -10 11.4 14.7 -3.3 3.6 5.0 -1.4 31.9 66.3 98.2 40.7 43.7 42.1 44.2 16.7 21.1 -4.4 22.0 41.4 26.6 368.6 436.9 45.8 Stoke
Sunderland 19 14 17 35 -18 9.9 18.7 -8.7 2.9 6.1 -3.2 30.9 69.6 100.5 32.7 34.7 32.4 34.8 14.4 27.0 -12.6 9.5 46.7 33.7 306.0 510.1 37.5 Sunderland
Swansea 19 12 21 44 -23 11.5 14.9 -3.4 4.3 5.2 -0.9 25.9 55.6 81.5 32.3 43.6 45.0 40.5 21.2 31.2 -10.0 9.3 45.2 35.6 429.5 450.4 48.8 Swansea
Tottenham 19 39 37 14 23 18.7 9.3 9.4 6.5 2.9 3.6 30.1 74.5 104.6 72.5 66.7 69.1 62.1 25.1 15.3 9.8 28.3 47.5 14.3 515.4 330.5 60.9 Tottenham
Watford 19 22 23 34 -11 10.7 13.9 -3.2 3.7 4.6 -0.8 32.4 60.9 93.3 40.4 43.6 44.9 40.8 16.0 23.1 -7.2 17.1 40.2 32.7 348.1 425.9 45.0 Watford
West Brom 19 26 25 23 2 10.3 13.3 -3.1 3.1 4.5 -1.4 42.4 73.3 115.6 52.1 43.5 40.7 46.6 19.4 22.2 -2.9 25.7 48.3 15.9 302.4 537.3 36.0 West Brom
West Ham 19 22 23 33 -10 14.2 13.9 0.2 3.5 5.4 -1.8 34.3 67.6 102.0 41.1 50.4 39.6 45.1 21.6 26.3 -4.7 17.8 46.5 25.7 391.7 431.2 47.6 West Ham
2nd 19 Games
2nd 19 Games Played Points GF GA Goal +/- Shots F p/90 Shots A p/90 Shots +/- p/90 SoT F p/90 SoT A p/90 SoT +/- p/90 Shooting% Save% PDO Goal% TSR SoTR xG Ratio xG For xG Against XG +/- Win Draw Lose Passes F Passes A Possession% 0
Arsenal 19 35 36 25 11 14.5 12.8 1.7 5.4 5.2 0.2 35.0 74.7 109.7 59.0 53.1 51.0 60.6 30.9 20.1 10.8 21.9 41.6 26.5 548.7 357.4 60.6 Arsenal
Bournemouth 19 21 29 36 -7 12.2 15.1 -2.9 4.4 5.1 -0.7 34.5 62.9 97.4 44.6 44.6 46.4 40.0 20.7 31.2 -10.4 23.1 35.6 31.3 444.8 433.4 50.7 Bournemouth
Burnley 19 17 18 26 -8 11.3 16.2 -4.9 3.3 4.9 -1.6 29.0 72.0 101.1 40.9 41.1 40.0 41.0 15.1 21.7 -6.6 10.0 58.7 21.3 323.0 469.2 40.8 Burnley
Chelsea 19 44 43 20 23 15.1 8.5 6.6 5.1 3.1 2.1 44.3 65.5 109.8 68.3 64.0 62.6 67.1 30.5 14.9 15.5 40.6 38.2 11.3 532.5 425.5 55.6 Chelsea
Palace 19 28 21 28 -7 10.6 13.1 -2.5 3.1 4.3 -1.2 35.6 65.9 101.4 42.9 44.8 41.8 47.0 19.3 21.8 -2.5 22.4 40.7 26.9 314.3 451.9 41.0 Palace
Everton 19 34 37 21 16 13.5 12.1 1.4 5.4 4.2 1.2 35.9 73.8 109.7 63.8 52.8 56.3 50.4 23.6 23.2 0.4 27.5 43.5 19.0 475.0 414.5 53.4 Everton
Hull 19 21 21 39 -18 10.8 13.7 -2.9 3.2 5.2 -2.0 34.4 60.6 95.0 35.0 44.1 38.1 35.3 16.5 30.3 -13.8 13.1 44.1 32.8 392.3 453.8 46.4 Hull
Leicester 19 23 24 32 -8 11.8 14.8 -3.1 4.2 5.2 -1.0 30.4 67.3 97.7 42.9 44.3 44.6 44.8 19.1 23.6 -4.5 23.2 40.6 26.3 336.0 497.0 40.3 Leicester
Liverpool 19 33 32 21 11 16.2 8.5 7.6 6.3 2.9 3.4 26.7 62.5 89.2 60.4 65.5 68.2 58.3 29.0 20.7 8.2 32.0 42.7 15.3 562.3 335.4 62.6 Liverpool
Man City 19 39 41 18 23 16.8 7.5 9.3 5.8 2.6 3.2 37.3 63.3 100.5 69.5 69.1 69.2 76.7 39.1 11.9 27.2 39.5 40.8 9.7 604.9 318.5 65.5 Man City
Man United 19 33 25 10 15 13.9 9.4 4.5 5.1 2.8 2.2 26.0 81.5 107.5 71.4 59.6 64.0 66.9 26.2 12.9 13.2 27.5 46.0 16.5 524.4 397.5 56.9 Man United
Middlesbrough 19 28 10 31 -21 9.3 14.8 -5.5 2.7 5.1 -2.4 19.6 68.0 87.6 24.4 38.6 34.5 35.3 15.2 27.9 -12.7 6.8 50.5 32.7 393.5 452.7 46.5 Middlesbrough
Southampton 19 22 22 26 -4 14.2 12.9 1.2 4.6 3.9 0.7 25.0 64.9 89.9 45.8 52.2 54.3 51.1 21.3 20.4 0.9 16.7 52.9 20.3 460.0 408.2 53.0 Southampton
Stoke 19 23 19 24 -5 11.3 13.8 -2.5 3.6 4.5 -0.9 27.9 72.1 100.0 44.2 45.0 44.2 52.0 23.9 22.0 1.9 24.7 42.6 22.7 380.2 449.2 45.8 Stoke
Sunderland 19 10 12 34 -22 10.6 16.8 -6.2 3.5 7.0 -3.5 18.2 74.4 92.6 26.1 38.8 33.2 32.0 13.6 28.8 -15.2 5.7 47.6 36.7 323.9 486.4 40.0 Sunderland
Swansea 19 29 24 26 -2 9.9 12.4 -2.5 3.4 4.5 -1.2 37.5 69.8 107.3 48.0 44.3 42.7 41.3 16.0 22.7 -6.7 25.0 43.3 21.7 402.8 491.1 45.1 Swansea
Tottenham 19 44 49 12 37 16.6 9.1 7.5 7.1 2.9 4.2 36.3 78.6 114.9 80.3 64.5 70.7 65.3 31.5 16.7 14.8 42.5 36.7 10.8 531.3 336.1 61.3 Tottenham
Watford 19 18 17 34 -17 11.5 14.5 -3.1 3.8 5.4 -1.5 23.3 66.7 90.0 33.3 44.1 41.7 39.4 16.9 26.1 -9.2 23.8 39.3 26.9 372.5 433.4 46.2 Watford
West Brom 19 19 18 28 -10 10.8 13.9 -3.1 3.4 4.0 -0.6 28.1 63.2 91.3 39.1 43.8 45.7 41.9 17.3 24.0 -6.7 20.7 41.9 27.3 311.1 540.7 36.5 West Brom
West Ham 19 23 24 31 -7 11.9 12.6 -0.7 3.7 4.2 -0.4 33.8 60.8 94.6 43.6 48.5 47.3 46.1 22.2 26.0 -3.8 17.8 43.7 28.5 386.1 467.6 45.2 West Ham

Wednesday, 1 February 2017

2016/17 xG

Updated 22/5/2017


This non-penalty expected goals model uses data sourced from Sportify which uses info about the location of a shot, the individual quality of the player taking the shot, and the placement of the shot. (Yeah, I know...)

This non-penalty xG model tends to undershoot actual non-penalty goals by ~0.3 goals per 2016/17 PL fixture. Use with caution, tread lightly, fistful of salt etc..

Key

GF Delta = Goals For - xG for (positive number = over performance)
GA Delta = Goals Against - xG Against (Negative number = under performance)
xSh% = xG for/Shots For (some people call this xG/per shot for some reason)
xSv% = xG Against/Shots Against
xPDO = xSh%+xSv%
Sh% Delta = Actual Sh% - xSh% (positive number = over performance)
Sv% Delta = Actual Sv% - xSv%
PDO Delta = Actual PDO - xPDO
Sh% = Non-Penalty Goals For/ Non-Penalty Shots For
Sv% = 100- Non-Penalty Goals Against/ Non-Penalty Shots Against



xG For xG Against XG +/- xG Ratio GF Delta GA Delta Goal +/- Delta xSh% xSv% xPDO Sh% Delta Sv% Delta PDO Delta Actual NPG %’s Act Sh% Act Sv% Act PDO
Arsenal 61.7 36.8 24.9 62.6 11.4 2.8 14.1 11.0 91.4 102.4 2.0 0.7 2.7 Arsenal 13.0 92.0 105.1
Bournemouth 39.9 58.4 -18.5 40.6 8.1 -6.6 1.5 9.0 89.4 98.4 1.8 -1.2 0.6 Bournemouth 10.8 88.2 99.0
Burnley 29.7 51.8 -22.1 36.5 3.3 0.8 4.1 7.6 92.2 99.8 0.8 0.1 1.0 Burnley 8.5 92.3 100.8
Chelsea 57.6 27.7 29.9 67.5 24.4 -3.3 21.1 10.0 91.4 101.3 4.2 -1.0 3.2 Chelsea 14.2 90.3 104.5
Palace 39.8 46.5 -6.8 46.1 6.3 -14.5 -8.2 9.3 91.0 100.3 1.5 -2.8 -1.3 Palace 10.7 88.2 98.9
Everton 46.0 44.3 1.7 50.9 13.0 3.3 16.3 9.2 90.0 99.3 2.6 0.7 3.4 Everton 11.8 90.8 102.6
Hull 29.0 58.8 -29.8 33.0 5.0 -10.2 -5.2 7.3 90.5 97.8 1.2 -1.6 -0.4 Hull 8.5 88.9 97.4
Leicester 40.2 45.5 -5.3 46.9 3.8 -13.5 -9.7 9.4 91.8 101.1 0.9 -2.4 -1.6 Leicester 10.3 89.3 99.6
Liverpool 60.3 36.0 24.3 62.6 10.7 -3.0 7.7 9.5 88.2 97.7 1.7 -1.0 0.7 Liverpool 11.2 87.2 98.4
Man City 69.5 26.0 43.5 72.8 3.5 -10.0 -6.5 11.1 91.3 102.4 0.6 -3.3 -2.8 Man City 11.7 88.0 99.6
Man United 54.9 25.7 29.2 68.1 -3.9 0.7 -3.2 9.3 92.8 102.1 -0.7 0.2 -0.5 Man United 8.7 93.0 101.6
Middlesbrough 27.7 48.2 -20.5 36.5 -2.7 -0.8 -3.5 7.9 91.2 99.2 -0.8 -0.2 -0.9 Middlesbrough 7.2 91.1 98.2
Southampton 42.5 35.2 7.3 54.7 -4.5 -6.8 -11.3 7.8 91.8 99.6 -0.8 -1.6 -2.4 Southampton 7.0 90.2 97.2
Stoke 40.6 43.1 -2.5 48.5 -3.6 -11.9 -15.5 9.5 92.0 101.6 -0.8 -2.2 -3.0 Stoke 8.7 89.8 98.5
Sunderland 28.0 55.8 -27.8 33.4 -4.0 -9.2 -13.2 7.2 91.7 98.9 -1.0 -1.4 -2.4 Sunderland 6.2 90.3 96.5
Swansea 37.2 53.9 -16.7 40.8 4.8 -10.1 -5.3 9.2 89.5 98.7 1.2 -2.0 -0.8 Swansea 10.4 87.5 97.9
Tottenham 56.7 32.1 24.6 63.9 22.3 8.1 30.4 8.6 90.8 99.4 3.4 2.3 5.7 Tottenham 12.0 93.1 105.1
Watford 32.9 49.2 -16.3 40.1 4.1 -15.8 -11.7 7.9 90.8 98.7 1.0 -2.9 -2.0 Watford 8.8 87.9 96.7
West Brom 36.7 46.2 -9.6 44.2 5.4 -1.8 3.6 9.2 91.0 100.2 1.3 -0.3 1.0 West Brom 10.5 90.7 101.2
West Ham 43.8 52.2 -8.5 45.6 0.2 -6.8 -6.5 8.9 89.5 98.4 0.0 -1.4 -1.3 West Ham 9.0 88.1 97.1
LGE AVE 43.7 43.7 0.0 50.0 5.4 5.4 0.0 9.1 90.9 100.0 1.1 -1.1 0.0 LGE AVE 10.2 89.8 100.0